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Approaches to assessing and managing cumulative ecosystem
change, with the Bay of Quinte as a case study: an essay *
Charles K. Minns
Great Lakes Laboratory for Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences,
Bayfield institute 867 Lakeshore Road, P.O. Box 5050,
Burlington, Ontario L7R 4A6, Canada
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Abstract
Rising concern for the future of humans and the earth's
ecosystems provides the backdrop for an essay on approaches to assessing
and managing ecosystem health. A review and critique of two rival
metaphors of human health, illness and wellness, provide the staring
point for evaluation of parallel approaches to the assessment and
management of ecosystems. The limitations of the metaphors are noted
for humans and ecosystems. The 'impact assessment' and ecosystem
approach' concepts of ecosystem assessment and management are contrasted.
As a case history, the nature and pace of change in the Bay of Quinte
ecosystem are reviewed, spanning from colonization by the Empire
Loyalists at the end of the 18th century through the current development
of a remedial action plan for the ecosystem. The review includes
the long-term scientific study of the Bay's response to point-source
phosphorus control (Project Quinte) and the recent efforts to develop
and implement a coordinated clean-up program (Remedial Action Plan).
From the lessons of the Quinte experience, a framework is derived,
combining the illness and wellness approaches to health. The framework
deals with five topics: uncertainty and the precautionary principle;
an ecosystem health scale; indicators of ecosystem health; maximum
allowable change; and, regulation and planning. Uncertainty should
not be used to justify inaction. A precautionary principle assumes
that impacts will occur and places the burden of proof on the proponents
of ecosystem disturbance. An ecosystem health scale is defined using
current, original, and potential conditions. Restoration to the
original condition is unlikely but provides a justifiable direction
for actions to establish sustainability. Indicators of ecosystem
health with sustainable ranges are preferred over end-points and
thresholds. The concept of maximum allowable change is promoted
with a tentative suggestion that a fifty percent rule might be used.
Finally, an argument for the combined use of regulation and planning.
Regulatory approaches tend to perpetuate confrontation. Planning
can be used to lengthen the time-horizon from quarterly reports
to generations and identify self-regulating codes of behaviour.
The framework is briefly discussed and placed in a broader context
linking humans and ecosystem, illness and wellness.
Keywords: ecosystem health, human health, metaphors, wellness,
case study, Bay of Quinte, framework
*Based on the text of a talk presented at the Cumulative Impact
Assessment Workshop held in Toronto, Ontario, December 1992, and
sponsored by the Notrh Central Division of the American Fisheries
Society.
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